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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
17%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 5 games
40%

Dragon

Mars
Marsoften banned
ghost · 3 games
67%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 939 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
405 picks · 580 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 664 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 582 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
303 picks · 272 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 177 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 373 bans
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
250 picks · 209 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
Phoenix Gaming 55%Dragon 45%
The model gave 55% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMolasses
59% · 18 gameslittle data
Necrophosghost
Necrophos
Lifestealer
Lifestealershiro
little data48% · 31 game
PangolierAzrael
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaXwy
38% · 4 games
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterzzq
little data
Sand King
Sand KingpLAnet
46% · 9 games
Game 2prediction correct32:25
Phoenix Gaming 52%Dragon 48%
The model gave 52% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXwy
49% · 49 games43% · 101 game
Void Spiritghost
Void Spirit
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancershiro
57% · 10 games38% · 41 game
LionAzrael
Lion
Windranger
WindrangerMolasses
62% · 13 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanpLAnet
61% · 47 games
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterzzq
64% · 23 games
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 54%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2