?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Phoenix Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Phoenix Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 6 games
17%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
pLAnet · 6 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
pLAnet · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 5 games
60%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Storm · 5 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 4 games
75%
Windranger
Windranger
Storm · 4 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Storm · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bLink · 3 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Storm · 2 games
0%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Storm · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Storm · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
450 picks · 989 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
427 picks · 593 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 695 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 609 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
323 picks · 298 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 183 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
282 picks · 246 bans
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 390 bans
61%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:12
Phoenix Gaming 64%Xtreme Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 57:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenshiro
50% · 4 games53% · 80 games
Death ProphetStorm
Death Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXwy
46% · 22 games
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMolasses
43% · 3 games
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
47% · 13 games
Grimstroke
Grimstrokezzq
48% · 38 games
Game 2prediction correct27:19
Phoenix Gaming 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursashiro
42% · 8 games51% · 33 games
Storm SpiritStorm
Storm Spirit
Necrophos
NecrophosXwy
little data
Puck
PuckMolasses
52% · 17 games
Kunkka
KunkkapLAnet
63% · 4 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionzzq
38% · 4 games
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 69%
Series resultPhoenix Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2