DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pibbles Corpwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NGNew Growthloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pibbles Corp
Clockwerk
Mjz · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ryu · 2 games
Disruptor
Prada · 2 games
Largooften banned
Ryu · 2 games
Lion
Mjz · 2 games
Monkey King
Alone · 2 games
Spirit Breaker
Mjz · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
Prada · 2 games
New Growth
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Rubick
Kiri · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Witch Doctor
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Baneoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kiri · 1 game
Clockwerk
Kiri · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
524 picks · 340 bans
Dark Willow
455 picks · 246 bans
Mirana
406 picks · 183 bans
Winter Wyvern
357 picks · 330 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 514 bans
Windranger
300 picks · 137 bans
Centaur Warrunner
299 picks · 292 bans
Earth Spirit
294 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% New Growth
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Pibbles Corp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:8
Pibbles Corp 52%New Growth 48%
The model gave 52% on Pibbles Corp — the game was taken by Pibbles Corp in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosMnz
Sand KingÑengoflow KELOKE
Dragon KnightAlone
WindrangerKiri
DoomRyu
Winter WyvernJimmyCoff666
RubickMjz
HoodwinkPrada
Game 2prediction correct29:7
Pibbles Corp 53%New Growth 47%
The model gave 53% on Pibbles Corp — the game was taken by Pibbles Corp in 23:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeRyu
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
TimbersawAlone
Shadow DemonKiri
SlarkMnz
DazzleJimmyCoff666
TechiesPrada
WindrangerMjz
Model check result
Model favoritePibbles Corp · 56%
Series resultPibbles Corp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2