The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionPpiggzwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UpStarsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
piggz
No games played over 6 months.
UpStars
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 733 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 630 bans
Gyrocopter
426 picks · 406 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 758 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 164 bans
Dragon Knight
358 picks · 1038 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% piggz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% piggz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
piggz 61%UpStars 39%
The model gave 61% on piggz — the game was taken by piggz.
Game 2prediction correct
piggz 61%UpStars 39%
The model gave 61% on piggz — the game was taken by piggz.
Model check result
Model favoritepiggz · 61%
Series resultpiggz 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2