CCT Season 2 Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 32 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 24 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 23 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 18 games
Tusksignature
Ekki · 17 games
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 23 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 21 game
Disruptor
kasane · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
788 picks · 362 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 579 bans
Hoodwink
582 picks · 301 bans
Jakiro
500 picks · 347 bans
Dragon Knight
499 picks · 589 bans
Tusk
485 picks · 272 bans
Mars
481 picks · 756 bans
Puck
438 picks · 1117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:33
Pipsqueak+4 37%1w Team 63%
The model gave 63% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsNande
MarciMunkushi~
Storm SpiritCopy
ViperSquad1x
AxePalantimos
Primal BeastSSS
HuskarEkki
Tuskswedenstrong
WarlockKidaro
DazzleRein
Game 2prediction correct10:32
Pipsqueak+4 40%1w Team 60%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNande
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
Storm SpiritCopy
TidehunterSSS
MarsPalantimos
SlardarSquad1x
RikiEkki
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
WarlockKidaro
VenomancerRein
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 70%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2