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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 39 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 29 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 28 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 23 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 22 games
55%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 29 games
72%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 27 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 24 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 23 games
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
676 picks · 289 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 596 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
571 picks · 727 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
557 picks · 270 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
541 picks · 329 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
501 picks · 471 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 585 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 685 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:26
Pipsqueak+4 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCopy
51% · 256 games52% · 403 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Abaddon
AbaddonNande
47% · 221 game52% · 213 games
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
Phantom Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterPalantimos
47% · 171 game54% · 71 game
Vipererase
Viper
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
46% · 237 games55% · 342 games
Shadow ShamanRESPECT
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
48% · 370 games50% · 226 games
Pugnaslimeyao
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed30:13
Pipsqueak+4 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 24:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCopy
44% · 135 games29% · 6 games
Bloodseekerv1olent-
Bloodseeker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
51% · 314 games52% · 309 games
Dragon Knighterase
Dragon Knight
Slark
SlarkNande
51% · 55 games48% · 116 games
TidehunterBb3px
Tidehunter
Snapfire
Snapfireaik
48% · 335 games58% · 186 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerEkki
47% · 70 games51% · 292 games
Disruptorslimeyao
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct25:52
Pipsqueak+4 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNande
50% · 89 games54% · 120 games
Ursav1olent-
Ursa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCopy
50% · 122 games52% · 163 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsPalantimos
46% · 319 games55% · 101 game
SlardarBb3px
Slardar
Lich
Lichaik
43% · 61 game59% · 56 games
Skywrath MageRESPECT
Skywrath Mage
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerEkki
39% · 67 games52% · 218 games
Tuskslimeyao
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 51%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3