?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 32 · BO5
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:3
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Most Wantedwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 30 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 24 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 20 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 19 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 19 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 16 games
69%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 18 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 13 games
85%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 13 games
77%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 12 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
757 picks · 355 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 628 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
547 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
455 picks · 268 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
449 picks · 509 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
441 picks · 730 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
406 picks · 259 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:35
Pipsqueak+4 51%Most Wanted 49%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezNande
45% · 28 games45% · 165 games
Terrorblade423
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingCopy
58% · 253 games50% · 121 game
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Viper
ViperPalantimos
53% · 26 games45% · 208 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
53% · 115 games42% · 92 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
51% · 367 games51% · 203 games
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct15:28
Pipsqueak+4 49%Most Wanted 51%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCopy
49% · 286 games53% · 219 games
Leshracniche
Leshrac
Mars
MarsNande
44% · 207 games52% · 410 games
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
46% · 239 games58% · 213 games
TidehunterfortniteMan
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
48% · 414 games49% · 370 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
44% · 293 games57% · 227 games
ChenRein
Chen
Game 3prediction correct15:36
Pipsqueak+4 48%Most Wanted 52%
The model gave 52% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerCopy
56% · 45 games50% · 160 games
Leshracniche
Leshrac
Kez
KezNande
45% · 15 games57% · 25 games
Broodmother423
Broodmother
Mars
MarsPalantimos
49% · 168 games49% · 234 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
51% · 225 games47% · 178 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Tusk
TuskEkki
46% · 243 games52% · 99 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 50%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3