PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoLogoJustMMRloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 45 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 35 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 35 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
NoLogoJustMMR
Ogre Magi
Flash · 4 games
Windrangeroften banned
legacy · 4 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 3 games
Rubick
G.T.I · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
Dark Willow
piro · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
G.T.I · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
534 picks · 857 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 372 bans
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 641 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 590 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 787 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 576 bans
Ember Spirit
349 picks · 556 bans
Mars
341 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:14
Pipsqueak+4 76%NoLogoJustMMR 24%
The model gave 76% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 23:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzDarkLord^
UnderlordLurker
Ember SpiritCopy
Gyrocopterlegacy
BrewmasterPalantimos
Void SpiritNyx
JakiroEkki
Ringmasterpiro
Undyingaik
WarlockFlash
Game 2prediction correct42:19
Pipsqueak+4 89%NoLogoJustMMR 11%
The model gave 89% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 31:15.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 89%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2