DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 27 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 16 games
Batridersignature
Kaori · 15 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 14 games
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 14 games
Morphlingsignature
Nande · 13 games
Passion UA
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
Snapfire
kreker · 25 games
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
Jakiro
kreker · 22 games
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 22 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Crystallize · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
667 picks · 321 bans
Disruptor
564 picks · 580 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 225 bans
Puck
406 picks · 1159 bans
Mars
382 picks · 641 bans
Tusk
360 picks · 260 bans
Pugna
354 picks · 399 bans
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 937 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:8
Pipsqueak+4 49%Passion UA 51%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 28:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautNande
SpectreCrystallize
TimbersawCopy
Queen of PainMoonlight
MarsPalantimos
PangolierBatyuk
WarlockKidaro
Jakirokreker
SnapfireEkki
BaneQBFY
Game 2prediction missed46:37
Pipsqueak+4 50%Passion UA 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 51:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingCopy
PangolierBatyuk
Storm SpiritNande
UrsaCrystallize
AxePalantimos
Ember SpiritMoonlight
ChenKidaro
Snapfirekreker
LeshracEkki
RingmasterQBFY
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 55%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2