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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 16 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 16 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 15 games
47%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
64%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 26 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 24 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
726 picks · 347 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
599 picks · 633 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
506 picks · 260 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
427 picks · 1172 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 694 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
420 picks · 261 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
404 picks · 426 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
358 picks · 216 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:35
Pipsqueak+4 49%Passion UA 51%
The model gave 51% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerCopy
48% · 20 games57% · 17 games
ViperBatyuk
Viper
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNande
46% · 162 games50% · 117 games
MarciCrystallize
Marci
Venomancer
VenomancerPalantimos
66% · 10 games44% · 90 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterHellscream
50% · 44 games56% · 54 games
Dazzlekreker
Dazzle
Warlock
WarlockKidaro
47% · 131 game57% · 89 games
LionQBFY
Lion
Game 2prediction missed19:46
Pipsqueak+4 51%Passion UA 49%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Passion UA in 37:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNande
55% · 296 games56% · 300 games
Nature's ProphetMoonlight
Nature's Prophet
Huskar
HuskarCopy
57% · 50 games46% · 87 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierPalantimos
44% · 295 games48% · 168 games
AxeBatyuk
Axe
Dazzle
DazzleKidaro
50% · 121 game45% · 243 games
Snapfirekreker
Snapfire
Tiny
TinyEkki
56% · 271 game45% · 235 games
HoodwinkQBFY
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 51%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2