?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 29 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 18 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 16 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 16 games
69%

Passion UA

Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 32 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 32 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Crystallize · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
743 picks · 349 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 633 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
538 picks · 286 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 1181 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 258 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 467 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 706 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
379 picks · 244 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:25
Pipsqueak+4 50%Passion UA 50%
The model gave 50% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNande
52% · 260 games41% · 95 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Sand King
Sand KingCopy
53% · 240 games46% · 366 games
Dragon KnightMoonlight
Dragon Knight
Venomancer
VenomancerPalantimos
56% · 49 games48% · 398 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskEkki
50% · 469 games54% · 221 game
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
50% · 399 games51% · 337 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed33:27
Pipsqueak+4 48%Passion UA 52%
The model gave 52% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 42:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherNande
49% · 15 games62% · 49 games
JuggernautCrystallize
Juggernaut
Viper
ViperPalantimos
41% · 15 games50% · 193 games
EarthshakerBatyuk
Earthshaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
44% · 218 games51% · 126 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
48% · 278 games52% · 304 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Tiny
TinyEkki
46% · 234 games58% · 88 games
Dazzlekreker
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 55%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2