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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Jellyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 29 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 24 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 19 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 16 games
44%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 16 games
69%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
64%

Royal Jelly

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 2 games
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
ani-san · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 2 games
100%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
738 picks · 349 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 637 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
519 picks · 273 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1176 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
420 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
414 picks · 447 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
365 picks · 233 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:21
Pipsqueak+4 66%Royal Jelly 34%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNande
49% · 144 games58% · 92 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
52% · 129 games49% · 122 games
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Axe
AxePalantimos
39% · 49 games57% · 189 games
Disruptorani-san
Disruptor
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageEkki
29% · 23 games
Dazzle
DazzleKidaro
50% · 58 games
Game 2prediction missed30:37
Pipsqueak+4 65%Royal Jelly 35%
The model gave 65% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 47:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNande
47% · 82 games57% · 231 game
Nature's ProphetStojkov
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
46% · 201 game56% · 154 games
SlardarMiyaoo
Slardar
Underlord
UnderlordPalantimos
39% · 61 game57% · 227 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEkki
39% · 146 games
Pugna
PugnaKidaro
44% · 122 games
Game 3prediction correct29:13
Pipsqueak+4 68%Royal Jelly 32%
The model gave 68% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 19:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherNande
42% · 31 game48% · 338 games
Dragon KnightStojkov
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixCopy
58% · 134 games47% · 133 games
Night StalkerMiyaoo
Night Stalker
Viper
ViperPalantimos
59% · 21 game48% · 42 games
Skywrath Mageani-san
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
53% · 156 games
Tusk
TuskEkki
50% · 171 game
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 81%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3