European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 17 games
Batridersignature
Kaori · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 15 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 14 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 13 games
Runa Team
Batridersignature
queezy · 47 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 46 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 41 game
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 36 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
714 picks · 345 bans
Disruptor
596 picks · 628 bans
Hoodwink
498 picks · 255 bans
Puck
411 picks · 1168 bans
Tusk
409 picks · 254 bans
Mars
406 picks · 686 bans
Dragon Knight
393 picks · 405 bans
Pugna
352 picks · 397 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:36
Pipsqueak+4 45%Runa Team 55%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 45:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNande
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Storm SpiritCopy
Dragon Knightnesfeer
UnderlordPalantimos
AxeAlberkaaa
BatriderEkki
Pugnaqueezy
JakiroKidaro
DisruptorHduo
Game 2prediction correct27:56
Pipsqueak+4 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 47:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritCopy
Marcinesfeer
MarsNande
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
TidehunterPalantimos
Sand Kingnicky`cool
HuskarEkki
Hoodwinkqueezy
SilencerKidaro
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Game 3prediction correct23:33
Pipsqueak+4 46%Runa Team 54%
The model gave 54% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerNande
Ursanesfeer
HuskarCopy
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
MarciAlberkaaa
TuskEkki
Snapfirequeezy
DazzleKidaro
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 59%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3