PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
strongboyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 46 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 37 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 36 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
strongboys
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 6 games
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
Clinkzoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
Marcioften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Muerta
Ponlo · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Ponlo · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
544 picks · 892 bans
Tusk
522 picks · 392 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 647 bans
Centaur Warrunner
471 picks · 599 bans
Shadow Demon
402 picks · 846 bans
Ember Spirit
369 picks · 593 bans
Mars
351 picks · 493 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% strongboys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:33
Pipsqueak+4 50%strongboys 50%
The model gave 50% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYuragi
InvokerStojkov
TidehunterPalantimos
GyrocopterLowskill
Ember SpiritCopy
Centaur WarrunnerChodΣX
JakiroEkki
UndyingTobi
Warlockaik
Skywrath MagePonlo
Game 2prediction missed29:27
Pipsqueak+4 51%strongboys 49%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by strongboys in 1:00:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverYuragi
Templar AssassinLowskill
BeastmasterCopy
Storm SpiritStojkov
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
BrewmasterChodΣX
EnigmaEkki
MuertaPonlo
Snapfireaik
UndyingTobi
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 52%
Series resultstrongboys 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2