PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:1
VValinorwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 45 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 36 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 35 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 31 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
Valinor
Jakirooften banned
Stoic · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
Kunkka
Wuiter · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
Phoenix
Wuiter · 4 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 4 games
Kezoften banned
Coblackk · 3 games
Sniperoften banned
G.T.I · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
535 picks · 859 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 374 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 592 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 791 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 575 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 556 bans
Mars
341 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Pipsqueak+4 66%Valinor 34%
The model gave 66% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Valinor in 33:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendDarkLord^
MedusaCoblackk
Storm SpiritCopy
TimbersawG.T.I
UnderlordPalantimos
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
HoodwinkEkki
Keeper of the LightJeezy
Ogre Magiaik
TuskStoic
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 81%
Series resultValinor 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1