European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 2 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 2 games
Meepooften banned
Nande · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
xn丶e · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 2 games
Snapfire
Kaori · 2 games
VP.Prodigy
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 3 games
Snapfire
armageddon · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
egx · 2 games
Void Spirit
Serenada · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
armageddon · 1 game
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Serenada · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
289 picks · 671 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 108 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 254 bans
Dawnbreaker
253 picks · 624 bans
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 524 bans
Marci
244 picks · 539 bans
Disruptor
241 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 43%
Hero pool strength65% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Pipsqueak+4 76%VP.Prodigy 24%
The model gave 76% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 25:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNande
Bristlebacktakizawa
Earthshakerxn丶e
Ursaegx
UndyingPalantimos
Sand KingSerenada
BatriderKaori
Hoodwinkarmageddon
SilencerKidaro
Game 2prediction correct32:11
Pipsqueak+4 74%VP.Prodigy 26%
The model gave 74% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerPalantimos
Templar Assassinegx
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Lycantakizawa
PudgeNande
Ember SpiritSerenada
WarlockKidaro
Snapfirearmageddon
PuckKaori
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 89%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2