Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Plasmaloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Betrayedwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Plasma
Bristleback
legacy · 1 game
Sven
legacy · 1 game
Betrayed
Disruptor
Flash · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 4 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Shad · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
symetricaL · 3 games
Rubick
Flash · 3 games
Tiny
OwnedMe · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
symetricaL · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
836 picks · 582 bans
Tiny
601 picks · 417 bans
Treant Protector
521 picks · 540 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 422 bans
Nature's Prophet
494 picks · 802 bans
Death Prophet
446 picks · 923 bans
Snapfire
438 picks · 308 bans
Clockwerk
392 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Plasma
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Betrayed
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:51
Plasma 41%Betrayed 59%
The model gave 59% on Betrayed — the game was taken by Betrayed in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetlegacy
Faceless VoidShad
ZeuscanceL^^
PuckMirage
46% · 80 games
Primal BeastOwnedMe
47% · 139 games
SnapfireFlash
46% · 179 games
RubickTANNER
Game 2prediction correct28:47
Plasma 41%Betrayed 59%
The model gave 59% on Betrayed — the game was taken by Betrayed in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marcilegacy
Nature's ProphetShad
Outworld DestroyercanceL^^
Shadow FiendMirage
52% · 23 games
MagnusOwnedMe
62% · 72 games
MiranaTANNER
49% · 84 games
ClockwerkFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteBetrayed · 67%
Series resultBetrayed 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2