DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
PlayTimewin 1:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PlayTime
Tusk
DJ · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
Jakirooften banned
Kuku · 5 games
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Kuku · 4 games
InterActive Philippines
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
649 picks · 739 bans
Tiny
530 picks · 486 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 400 bans
Warlock
444 picks · 301 bans
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 1094 bans
Phoenix
401 picks · 334 bans
Puck
387 picks · 804 bans
Mars
386 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% PlayTime
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
PlayTime 66%InterActive Philippines 34%
The model gave 66% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime.
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 66%
Series resultPlayTime 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1