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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimeloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Skyreaverswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolier
DarkMago · 16 games
38%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Wits · 16 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wits · 14 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 13 games
46%
Largo
Largooften banned
Frank · 13 games
38%

Skyreavers

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Ryu · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Prada · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Asao · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Mnz · 1 game
0%
Largo
Largooften banned
Frank · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey King
Alone · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
557 picks · 368 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
496 picks · 291 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
423 picks · 188 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
392 picks · 354 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
354 picks · 541 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
343 picks · 165 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
307 picks · 554 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
302 picks · 302 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:8
PlayTime 52%Skyreavers 48%
The model gave 52% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerParker
64% · 17 games56% · 40 games
Iobottega
Io
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFrank
42% · 142 games48% · 180 games
PangolierAbed
Pangolier
Bane
BaneMoOz
46% · 284 games51% · 75 games
TidehunterFCR
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAsao
46% · 329 games51% · 426 games
HoodwinkElmisho
Hoodwink
68% · 51 game
Bounty HunterKJ
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 53%
Series resultSkyreavers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1