DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimeloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PlayTime
Tusk
DJ · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
Jakirooften banned
Kuku · 5 games
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 5 games
Dawnbreaker
JG · 4 games
Team Nemesis
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
Tinysignature
Mac · 14 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 13 games
Muerta
Jhocam · 12 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 11 games
Jakirooften banned
Jaunuel · 11 games
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
664 picks · 767 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 514 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
454 picks · 312 bans
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1113 bans
Puck
396 picks · 800 bans
Phoenix
395 picks · 319 bans
Mars
389 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:35
PlayTime 39%Team Nemesis 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 50:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightPiPi
Monkey King23savage
KezAkashi
Ember SpiritMac
TidehunterRaven
SlardarJabz
HoodwinkDJ
PhoenixJaunuel
Crystal MaidenKuku
Shadow DemonQ
Game 2prediction correct6:32
PlayTime 42%Team Nemesis 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterPiPi
Slark23savage
KezAkashi
PangolierMac
BrewmasterRaven
SlardarJabz
HoodwinkDJ
WindrangerQ
BaneKuku
WarlockJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 68%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2