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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimewin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothers.Tearlamentsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 7 games
43%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Gabbi · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
JG · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Kuku · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Armel · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
JG · 3 games
67%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Armel · 3 games
67%

Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Echo · 4 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
niu · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
zzq · 3 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
TK · 3 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
zzq · 3 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
niu · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
niu · 2 games
100%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
lou · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
537 picks · 875 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 385 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 637 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 595 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
398 picks · 826 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
360 picks · 580 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 570 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 483 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:29
PlayTime 46%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 54%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments in 43:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaAkashi
49% · 102 games52% · 137 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightArmel
52% · 65 games45% · 48 games
ViperEcho
Viper
Axe
AxeGabbi
47% · 147 games56% · 210 games
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
WindrangerDJ
46% · 113 games60% · 7 games
Witch Doctorzzq
Witch Doctor
Largo
LargoKuku
43% · 3 games51% · 28 games
Faceless VoidTK
Faceless Void
Game 2prediction missed35:18
PlayTime 45%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 55%
The model gave 55% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by PlayTime in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAkashi
55% · 146 games57% · 78 games
Clinkzlou
Clinkz
Timbersaw
TimbersawGabbi
44% · 129 games53% · 157 games
InvokerEcho
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritArmel
51% · 128 games44% · 263 games
Axeniu
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
49% · 324 games48% · 153 games
Skywrath MageTK
Skywrath Mage
Tiny
TinyDJ
48% · 269 games52% · 345 games
Shadow Shamanzzq
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed27:10
PlayTime 46%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 54%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by PlayTime in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterAkashi
43% · 223 games51% · 214 games
Muertalou
Muerta
Timbersaw
TimbersawGabbi
48% · 163 games55% · 380 games
Storm SpiritEcho
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritArmel
45% · 146 games49% · 295 games
Marsniu
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
47% · 416 games63% · 99 games
Keeper of the LightTK
Keeper of the Light
Pudge
PudgeDJ
47% · 55 games56% · 15 games
Witch Doctorzzq
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers.Tearlaments · 57%
Series resultPlayTime 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3