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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
PlayTimewin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 14 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 6 games
50%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Akashi · 6 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Wits · 6 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 37 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
60%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 17 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 15 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 15 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
bottega · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
510 picks · 290 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 567 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 352 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
432 picks · 340 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 324 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
347 picks · 834 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 844 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
343 picks · 182 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:21
PlayTime 55%Yellow Submarine 45%
The model gave 55% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 1:08:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingWits
50% · 168 games58% · 166 games
KezShigetsu
Kez
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
54% · 270 games52% · 127 games
Keeper of the LightRain
Keeper of the Light
Viper
ViperFrank
47% · 100 games51% · 157 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixElmisho
47% · 243 games54% · 400 games
Hoodwinknot me
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
43% · 104 games32% · 35 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Game 2prediction missed21:22
PlayTime 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFrank
47% · 282 games52% · 127 games
LunaShigetsu
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
46% · 281 game54% · 279 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Kez
KezWits
48% · 104 games43% · 53 games
IoRain
Io
Phoenix
PhoenixElmisho
48% · 259 games56% · 406 games
Batridernot me
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
52% · 327 games47% · 388 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct32:16
PlayTime 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on PlayTime — the game was taken by PlayTime in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWits
55% · 56 games53% · 118 games
Primal BeastBatyuk
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDarkMago
53% · 193 games50% · 52 games
IoRain
Io
Largo
LargoFrank
57% · 63 games48% · 67 games
AlchemistShigetsu
Alchemist
Phoenix
PhoenixElmisho
52% · 166 games45% · 256 games
Batridernot me
Batrider
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinScofield
45% · 46 games34% · 31 game
LichXakoda
Lich
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 63%
Series resultPlayTime 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3