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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RSGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 19 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
PlayHard · 10 games
70%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tiny
Natsumi · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 8 games
50%

RSG

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 450 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
489 picks · 696 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
454 picks · 290 bans
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 533 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
392 picks · 547 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
391 picks · 635 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 621 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 318 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:23
Polaris Esports 64%RSG 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by RSG in 36:19.
Game 2prediction correct33:18
Polaris Esports 64%RSG 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 40:51.
Game 3prediction missed19:42
Polaris Esports 64%RSG 36%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by RSG in 43:24.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 64%
Series resultRSG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3