ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team SMGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Force · 17 games
Tiny
Mac · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 11 games
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
Snapfire
Boomy · 11 games
Sand Kingsignature
Nevermine · 9 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 9 games
Team SMG
Bane
ninjaboogie · 11 games
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 6 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Moon · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
579 picks · 443 bans
Puck
416 picks · 895 bans
Mars
362 picks · 574 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 462 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 179 bans
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
Dawnbreaker
317 picks · 370 bans
Ember Spirit
293 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total51% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
Polaris Esports 48%Team SMG 52%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerNatsumi
LifestealerMidOne
KunkkaMac
PuckMoon
RubickBoomy
WarlockPoloson
SlardarForce
EnigmaAhFu
ChenEyyou
Game 2prediction correct14:39
Polaris Esports 49%Team SMG 51%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 29:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Ember SpiritMoon
Void SpiritMac
Faceless VoidMidOne
MarsForce
ClockwerkAhFu
DawnbreakerBoomy
DazzlePoloson
Winter WyvernEyyou
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 51%
Series resultTeam SMG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2