IESF World Esports Championship 2024 Europe Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Польшаloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Болгарияwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Польша
No games played over 6 months.
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
389 picks · 742 bans
Hoodwink
345 picks · 303 bans
Rubick
344 picks · 227 bans
Weaver
338 picks · 673 bans
Clockwerk
319 picks · 470 bans
Gyrocopter
311 picks · 381 bans
Pangolier
307 picks · 537 bans
Dark Willow
286 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Польша
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Польша
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:39
Польша 61%Болгария 39%
The model gave 61% on Польша — the game was taken by Болгария in 40:47.
Game 2prediction correct28:36
Польша 61%Болгария 39%
The model gave 61% on Польша — the game was taken by Польша in 33:51.
Game 3prediction missed40:11
Польша 61%Болгария 39%
The model gave 61% on Польша — the game was taken by Болгария in 29:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteПольша · 61%
Series resultБолгария 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3