DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
potn9kiwin 1:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
K27loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
potn9ki
No games played over 6 months.
K27
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
524 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
440 picks · 211 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 177 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 305 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 505 bans
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 293 bans
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 512 bans
Windranger
277 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% potn9ki
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% K27
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
potn9ki 42%K27 58%
The model gave 58% on K27 — the game was taken by potn9ki.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 58%
Series resultpotn9ki 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1