DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
potn9kiwin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WSWhite Sailsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
potn9ki
Dazzle
OTTO · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
everlastingHaru · 2 games
Techiesoften banned
OTTO · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Bristleback
Igris · 1 game
Centaur Warrunner
fortniteMan · 1 game
Dark Willow
everlastingHaru · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
White Sails
Winter Wyvern
Atoufix · 3 games
Snapfire
MaTson · 2 games
Dark Willow
meLes · 1 game
Dazzle
Atoufix · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
MaTson · 1 game
Nyx Assassin
meLes · 1 game
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
569 picks · 373 bans
Dark Willow
505 picks · 306 bans
Mirana
427 picks · 189 bans
Winter Wyvern
401 picks · 359 bans
Ember Spirit
359 picks · 551 bans
Windranger
353 picks · 175 bans
Earth Spirit
311 picks · 570 bans
Centaur Warrunner
304 picks · 303 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% White Sails
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% potn9ki
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
potn9ki 55%White Sails 45%
The model gave 55% on potn9ki — the game was taken by potn9ki.
Game 2prediction correct
potn9ki 55%White Sails 45%
The model gave 55% on potn9ki — the game was taken by potn9ki.
Model check result
Model favoritepotn9ki · 55%
Series resultpotn9ki 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2