PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 1:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 9 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 8 games
Tusk
Immersion · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 7 games
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 6 games
Chenoften banned
Hduo · 5 games
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 5 games
1w Team
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 32 games
Warlock
kasane · 30 games
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 29 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 27 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Munkushi~ · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
551 picks · 905 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 400 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 653 bans
Centaur Warrunner
478 picks · 607 bans
Shadow Demon
408 picks · 864 bans
Ember Spirit
373 picks · 601 bans
Mars
358 picks · 501 bans
Warlock
356 picks · 213 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total68% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:37
Power Rangers 41%1w Team 59%
The model gave 59% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersawnicky`cool
WindrangerMunkushi~
Dragon Knightnesfeer
LeshracSquad1x
AxeAlberkaaa
LargoSSS
Ancient ApparitionHduo
DisruptorRein
Nyx AssassinImmersion
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
Game 2prediction missed39:32
Power Rangers 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 1:06:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinnesfeer
WindrangerMunkushi~
Huskarnicky`cool
PuckSquad1x
PhoenixHduo
Skywrath MageRein
MarsAlberkaaa
TidehunterSSS
Treant ProtectorImmersion
Tuskswedenstrong
Game 3prediction correct7:30
Power Rangers 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonnesfeer
Dragon KnightMunkushi~
Leshracnicky`cool
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
MarsSSS
TinyImmersion
WarlockRein
DazzleHduo
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 68%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3