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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 28 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 26 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 25 games
48%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Immersion · 20 games
60%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 19 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 18 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusksignature
swedenstrong · 33 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 25 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 21 game
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 18 games
78%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
570 picks · 480 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
506 picks · 395 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 252 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
486 picks · 537 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
454 picks · 386 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
380 picks · 948 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
376 picks · 907 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
374 picks · 225 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total63% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
Power Rangers 47%1w Team 53%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidTA2000
54% · 30 games37% · 59 games
Alchemistv1olent-
Alchemist
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
50% · 405 games50% · 383 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Lycan
Lycanmangekyou
68% · 31 game47% · 179 games
Slardarмистер мораль
Slardar
Venomancer
VenomancerHduo
53% · 57 games43% · 16 games
Techiesswedenstrong
Techies
Dark Willow
Dark WillowImmersion
51% · 121 game64% · 7 games
LichRein
Lich
Game 2prediction missed31:17
Power Rangers 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTA2000
52% · 103 games48% · 426 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
51% · 268 games45% · 112 games
Troll Warlordv1olent-
Troll Warlord
Beastmaster
Beastmastermangekyou
50% · 339 games44% · 161 game
Kunkkaмистер мораль
Kunkka
Hoodwink
HoodwinkImmersion
55% · 328 games50% · 288 games
Phoenixswedenstrong
Phoenix
Chen
ChenHduo
58% · 161 game48% · 212 games
EnchantressRein
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct21:28
Power Rangers 45%1w Team 55%
The model gave 55% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTA2000
54% · 127 games52% · 208 games
Bristlebackмистер мораль
Bristleback
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
46% · 374 games48% · 365 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Doom
Doommangekyou
55% · 132 games54% · 74 games
Kezv1olent-
Kez
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
46% · 53 games43% · 47 games
Techiesswedenstrong
Techies
Io
IoImmersion
50% · 31 game54% · 23 games
LichRein
Lich
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 63%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3