European Pro League Season 38 · BO5
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 1:3series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:3
4ikibamboniwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 31 game
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 31 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 29 games
Tusk
Immersion · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 23 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 23 games
4ikibamboni
Tusk
waveformn · 11 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 10 games
Axeoften banned
Ankou · 8 games
Rubicksignature
ani-san · 8 games
Vipersignature
Ethereal · 8 games
Bane
ani-san · 7 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 7 games
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
643 picks · 444 bans
Rubick
595 picks · 335 bans
Phoenix
461 picks · 545 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 368 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 511 bans
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 398 bans
Puck
332 picks · 1013 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:25
Power Rangers 70%4ikibamboni 30%
The model gave 70% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreTA2000
Muertayowaai
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Death ProphetEthereal
SlardarAlberkaaa
AxeAnkou
Treant ProtectorHduo
Snapfireani-san
RingmasterImmersion
Tuskwaveformn
Game 2prediction missed15:32
Power Rangers 68%4ikibamboni 32%
The model gave 68% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeusnicky`cool
Clinkzyowaai
MagnusTA2000
DoomAnkou
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Death ProphetEthereal
SnapfireImmersion
Rubickwaveformn
SilencerHduo
Treant Protectorani-san
Game 3prediction correct50:18
Power Rangers 68%4ikibamboni 32%
The model gave 68% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerTA2000
Muertayowaai
Slardarnicky`cool
PuckEthereal
EnigmaAlberkaaa
BeastmasterAnkou
Treant ProtectorImmersion
Hoodwinkwaveformn
BaneHduo
Ogre Magiani-san
Game 4prediction missed33:44
Power Rangers 67%4ikibamboni 33%
The model gave 67% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by 4ikibamboni in 47:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetTA2000
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Sand Kingnicky`cool
PuckEthereal
UndyingAlberkaaa
LargoAnkou
WindrangerImmersion
Tuskwaveformn
ClockwerkHduo
Dark Willowani-san
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 81%
Series result4ikibamboni 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4