PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 10 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 8 games
Tusk
Immersion · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 7 games
Chenoften banned
Hduo · 5 games
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 5 games
HULIGANI
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 43 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 39 games
Chensignature
RESPECT · 36 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 35 games
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
Snapfire
RESPECT · 32 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 31 game
Tusk
slimeyao · 31 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
560 picks · 916 bans
Tusk
533 picks · 405 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 657 bans
Centaur Warrunner
483 picks · 618 bans
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 888 bans
Ember Spirit
380 picks · 614 bans
Mars
365 picks · 510 bans
Warlock
359 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:30
Power Rangers 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordAlberkaaa
Terrorbladev1olent-
Lunanesfeer
Puckxn丶e
Slardarnicky`cool
LargoBb3px
RingmasterImmersion
Disruptorslimeyao
UndyingHduo
JakiroRESPECT
Game 2prediction missed39:20
Power Rangers 46%HULIGANI 54%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 47:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snipernicky`cool
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lunanesfeer
Puckxn丶e
MarsAlberkaaa
LargoBb3px
Shadow DemonImmersion
JakiroRESPECT
DisruptorHduo
Tuskslimeyao
Game 3prediction missed34:19
Power Rangers 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunanesfeer
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Slardarnicky`cool
Queen of Painxn丶e
BatriderAlberkaaa
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
WarlockHduo
SnapfireRESPECT
Shadow DemonImmersion
Disruptorslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 54%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3