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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MODUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 34 games
62%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 28 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 27 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 22 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 20 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 20 games
65%

MODUS

Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
prblms · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 7 games
43%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 7 games
29%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
bottega · 6 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirele · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
509 picks · 297 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 574 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 351 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
432 picks · 334 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 322 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 186 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
347 picks · 841 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 846 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Power Rangers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total80% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
Power Rangers 66%MODUS 34%
The model gave 66% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTA2000
53% · 54 games42% · 92 games
Kezbottega
Kez
Slardar
Slardarnicky`cool
49% · 323 games52% · 302 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Kunkka
KunkkaAlberkaaa
49% · 93 games48% · 180 games
Bristlebackelmo^^
Bristleback
Windranger
WindrangerImmersion
50% · 238 games56% · 31 game
Winter Wyvernkasane
Winter Wyvern
Silencer
SilencerHduo
48% · 160 games54% · 263 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct23:11
Power Rangers 69%MODUS 31%
The model gave 69% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
51% · 495 games44% · 346 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Slark
SlarkTA2000
53% · 77 games49% · 234 games
Tidehunterelmo^^
Tidehunter
Kunkka
KunkkaAlberkaaa
45% · 157 games48% · 244 games
Windrangerbottega
Windranger
Chen
ChenHduo
56% · 176 games48% · 232 games
Rubickkasane
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkImmersion
55% · 464 games50% · 313 games
Ringmasterprblms
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 80%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2