EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 38 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 27 games
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 27 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 25 games
Phoenix
Immersion · 21 game
Tusk
Immersion · 17 games
Yellow Submarine
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 30 games
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Clockwerksignature
not me · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Rain · 13 games
Lionsignature
Wein · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 361 bans
Clockwerk
362 picks · 648 bans
Rubick
343 picks · 192 bans
Bane
341 picks · 384 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 347 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 449 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 231 bans
Storm Spirit
299 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:48
Power Rangers 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 1:13:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunabashka
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Invokerkiyotaka
EnigmaBatyuk
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Earth SpiritRain
MiranaHduo
HoodwinkWein
Shadow DemonImmersion
ClockwerkXakoda
Game 2prediction missed21:44
Power Rangers 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendbashka
SvenShigetsu
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Centaur WarrunnerBatyuk
MarsAlberkaaa
LinaRain
TuskHduo
LichXakoda
Dark WillowImmersion
HoodwinkWein
Game 3prediction missed8:27
Power Rangers 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 23:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezbashka
SvenShigetsu
Snapfirekiyotaka
Earth SpiritRain
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
EnigmaBatyuk
Keeper of the LightImmersion
LargoWein
DisruptorHduo
RingmasterXakoda
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 62%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3