The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PRISM Esportswin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PRISM Esports
No games played over 6 months.
IHC Esports
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 8 games
Dark Willowoften banned
ace12 · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
Marsoften banned
eleven · 4 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
Techies
ace12 · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
446 picks · 679 bans
Crystal Maiden
398 picks · 181 bans
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 425 bans
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 524 bans
Rubick
338 picks · 167 bans
Batrider
336 picks · 545 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 634 bans
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 792 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% IHC Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:16
PRISM Esports 47%IHC Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by PRISM Esports in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor423
Chaos KnightFortuneSoul
Storm SpiritBob
Pangoliereleven
Centaur Warrunnerseimei
RubickHishge
46% · 116 games
Dark Willowace12
Game 2prediction missed30:16
PRISM Esports 48%IHC Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by PRISM Esports in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa423
WindrangerFortuneSoul
Brewmasterseimei
Centaur Warrunnereleven
Dragon KnightBob
Monkey KingHishge
47% · 91 game
Dark Willowace12
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 57%
Series resultPRISM Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2