The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PRISM Esportswin 2:1series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team TKloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PRISM Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Team TK
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 719 bans
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 626 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 761 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% PRISM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team TK
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
PRISM Esports 33%Team TK 67%
The model gave 67% on Team TK — the game was taken by PRISM Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
PRISM Esports 33%Team TK 67%
The model gave 67% on Team TK — the game was taken by Team TK.
Game 3prediction missed
PRISM Esports 33%Team TK 67%
The model gave 67% on Team TK — the game was taken by PRISM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam TK · 67%
Series resultPRISM Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3