Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EZ KATKAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 16 games
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 12 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 8 games
Iosignature
Eixn · 8 games
EZ KATKA
Alchemistoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Lukas · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Wuiter · 1 game
Pudge
Rvze · 1 game
Rubick
Lefitan · 1 game
Skywrath Mage
Lefitan · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lukas · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
580 picks · 456 bans
Mars
429 picks · 657 bans
Dragon Knight
400 picks · 522 bans
Puck
387 picks · 856 bans
Bane
378 picks · 259 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 628 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 548 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength61% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:24
PSG Quest 62%EZ KATKA 38%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusNo!ob
NecrophosWuiter
ClockwerkOmaR
Faceless VoidLukas
LionEixn
PuckRvze
53% · 146 games
TinyLefitan
Game 2prediction correct38:20
PSG Quest 62%EZ KATKA 38%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorNo!ob
SvenLukas
TuskOmaR
Queen of PainRvze
Death ProphetEixn
ViperWuiter
48% · 40 games
MarciLefitan
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 73%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2