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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 35 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 27 games
78%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 20 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 19 games
68%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kaori · 19 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 18 games
67%

KZ TEAM

Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 12 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 12 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mr. Luck · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
478 picks · 510 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
450 picks · 216 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 671 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 617 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
336 picks · 710 bans
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
332 picks · 767 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
316 picks · 325 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
314 picks · 649 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total84% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
PSG Quest 72%KZ TEAM 28%
The model gave 72% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 48:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerTA2000
45% · 76 games52% · 207 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanTobi
56% · 142 games41% · 66 games
InvokerW1sh-
Invoker
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
53% · 374 games50% · 115 games
TidehunterSkyLark
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
51% · 147 games48% · 469 games
RubickdEsire
Rubick
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
53% · 216 games44% · 98 games
Shadow DemonSsaSpartan
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct38:18
PSG Quest 73%KZ TEAM 27%
The model gave 73% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 48:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
47% · 73 games46% · 78 games
InvokerW1sh-
Invoker
Puck
PuckNo!ob
50% · 128 games47% · 37 games
Phantom AssassinNande
Phantom Assassin
Lycan
LycanTobi
56% · 124 games49% · 366 games
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
49% · 77 games53% · 438 games
TinydEsire
Tiny
Rubick
RubickOmaR
51% · 527 games45% · 10 games
Shadow ShamanSsaSpartan
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 84%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2