Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monaspaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Tiny
OmaR · 17 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Eixn · 7 games
Marcioften banned
OmaR · 7 games
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 7 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Zeusoften banned
No!ob · 4 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
359 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
312 picks · 291 bans
Marci
274 picks · 516 bans
Undying
254 picks · 463 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 553 bans
Primal Beast
232 picks · 594 bans
Shadow Fiend
221 picks · 341 bans
Snapfire
214 picks · 114 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:23
PSG Quest 34%Monaspa 66%
The model gave 66% on Monaspa — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 45:54.
Game 2prediction missed43:19
PSG Quest 34%Monaspa 66%
The model gave 66% on Monaspa — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 41:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 66%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2