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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 23 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 21 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 19 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 18 games
61%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 18 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 39 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 33 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 32 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 26 games
69%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 23 games
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
459 picks · 215 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 719 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
424 picks · 591 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 425 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
375 picks · 675 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
367 picks · 168 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
354 picks · 947 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 681 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:14
PSG Quest 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTA2000
50% · 156 games52% · 39 games
Shadow FiendSupream^
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
44% · 91 game66% · 49 games
PudgeUlnit
Pudge
Windranger
WindrangerNo!ob
43% · 110 games50% · 160 games
PhoenixForce
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
43% · 134 games50% · 207 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Io
IoDukalis
57% · 44 games53% · 80 games
EarthshakerNARMAN
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction correct36:19
PSG Quest 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTA2000
44% · 210 games47% · 70 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
53% · 235 games54% · 177 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Doom
DoomMalik
43% · 182 games53% · 53 games
UnderlordForce
Underlord
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
47% · 140 games57% · 292 games
GyrocopterNARMAN
Gyrocopter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
52% · 132 games50% · 307 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 62%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2