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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 30 games
53%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
TA2000 · 16 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 15 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
No!ob · 12 games
42%
Mirana
Miranasignature
OmaR · 12 games
75%

Nigma Galaxy

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
GH · 5 games
60%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuma · 5 games
80%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 435 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
247 picks · 385 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
245 picks · 335 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 204 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
210 picks · 298 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
204 picks · 100 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 499 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
182 picks · 325 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total83% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:37
PSG Quest 68%Nigma Galaxy 32%
The model gave 68% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
46% · 109 games43% · 6 games
Arc WardenMiracle-
Arc Warden
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalik
52% · 149 games53% · 86 games
KunkkaGhost
Kunkka
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
41% · 119 games46% · 166 games
Monkey KingSumaiL
Monkey King
Lion
LionOmaR
61% · 95 games48% · 245 games
BatriderrmN-
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
56% · 122 games48% · 91 game
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct33:10
PSG Quest 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo!ob
49% · 162 games50% · 140 games
Faceless VoidMiracle-
Faceless Void
Lina
LinaTA2000
53% · 114 games46% · 135 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
50% · 192 games50% · 122 games
KunkkaGhost
Kunkka
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
53% · 251 game49% · 201 game
PhoenixKuroKy
Phoenix
Lion
LionOmaR
53% · 97 games48% · 218 games
BatriderrmN-
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct46:16
PSG Quest 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
48% · 149 games73% · 7 games
Arc WardenMiracle-
Arc Warden
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo!ob
56% · 105 games44% · 324 games
DoomGhost
Doom
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
53% · 240 games51% · 407 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
57% · 150 games46% · 297 games
BatriderrmN-
Batrider
Rubick
RubickOmaR
43% · 522 games52% · 131 game
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 83%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3