?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 29 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 20 games
70%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 16 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 14 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%

OG

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 10 games
50%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
888 picks · 617 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
634 picks · 440 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 433 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
535 picks · 852 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 544 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
477 picks · 329 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
464 picks · 1000 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
436 picks · 314 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 46%
Hero pool strength61% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:30
PSG Quest 46%OG 54%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
57% · 146 games46% · 301 game
Nature's ProphetYuragi
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetNo!ob
44% · 526 games52% · 217 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Tidehunter
TidehunterWuiter
52% · 170 games51% · 313 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorOmaR
55% · 277 games49% · 192 games
EnchantressChuvash
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKaori
53% · 447 games41% · 543 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed29:14
PSG Quest 44%OG 56%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
58% · 118 games59% · 70 games
LifestealerYuragi
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckNo!ob
49% · 200 games46% · 157 games
Zeusbzm
Zeus
Venomancer
VenomancerWuiter
48% · 31 game55% · 259 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
46% · 119 games42% · 63 games
TechiesChuvash
Techies
Rubick
RubickOmaR
49% · 368 games45% · 287 games
MiranaTaiga
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct25:22
PSG Quest 45%OG 55%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 54:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTA2000
52% · 40 games36% · 118 games
Drow RangerYuragi
Drow Ranger
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
52% · 723 games46% · 219 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Venomancer
VenomancerWuiter
51% · 50 games53% · 261 game
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Silencer
SilencerKaori
53% · 234 games45% · 533 games
RubickTaiga
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorOmaR
62% · 348 games45% · 264 games
UndyingChuvash
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 66%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3