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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 29 games
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 26 games
65%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 21 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 19 games
89%
Silencer
Silencer
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 18 games
61%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%

Team Aster

Doom
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 29 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Fantasy · 26 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fantasy · 25 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Xwy · 25 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 25 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Xwy · 21 game
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
669 picks · 697 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
630 picks · 445 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
569 picks · 1118 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
483 picks · 1011 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
477 picks · 1192 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
453 picks · 417 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
444 picks · 714 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
420 picks · 890 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
PSG Quest 58%Team Aster 42%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTA2000
55% · 216 games45% · 96 games
LunaMonet
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
52% · 149 games57% · 284 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
50% · 194 games52% · 190 games
VisageXxs
Visage
Rubick
RubickOmaR
48% · 405 games43% · 75 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Silencer
SilencerKaori
49% · 174 games47% · 493 games
UndyingFantasy
Undying
Game 2prediction missed7:23
PSG Quest 57%Team Aster 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Aster in 29:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
44% · 193 games56% · 113 games
MedusaMonet
Medusa
Snapfire
SnapfireNo!ob
47% · 467 games51% · 285 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Razor
RazorATF
48% · 75 games50% · 153 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOmaR
52% · 340 games55% · 278 games
MiranaBoBoKa
Mirana
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
45% · 127 games52% · 373 games
UndyingFantasy
Undying
Game 3prediction correct23:15
PSG Quest 60%Team Aster 40%
The model gave 60% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
57% · 105 games47% · 174 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Puck
PuckNo!ob
55% · 162 games46% · 181 game
BloodseekerMonet
Bloodseeker
Slark
SlarkATF
50% · 146 games48% · 134 games
TidehunterXxs
Tidehunter
Techies
TechiesOmaR
48% · 235 games48% · 365 games
BatriderFantasy
Batrider
Undying
UndyingKaori
49% · 278 games55% · 72 games
IoBoBoKa
Io
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 62%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3