Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 8 games
Snapfiresignature
OmaR · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
OmaR · 7 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 7 games
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 6 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 6 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 6 games
Undyingsignature
Eixn · 6 games
Team Bald Reborn
Pangolieroften banned
Rajjix · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Pablo · 10 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
Rajjix · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Excalibur · 7 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 7 games
Juggernautsignature
Gorgc · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
466 picks · 496 bans
Bane
441 picks · 269 bans
Sand King
423 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 606 bans
Dragon Knight
356 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 535 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 812 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:24
PSG Quest 51%Team Bald Reborn 49%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireNo!ob
BloodseekerGorgc
Keeper of the LightOmaR
VisageExcalibur
UndyingEixn
MarsZipZaper
56% · 153 games
TinyPablo
49% · 133 games
Grimstrokebengan
Game 2prediction correct23:22
PSG Quest 50%Team Bald Reborn 50%
The model gave 50% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckNo!ob
Dragon KnightExcalibur
SnapfireOmaR
RazorGorgc
TuskEixn
MarsZipZaper
50% · 174 games
Grimstrokebengan
65% · 39 games
WindrangerPablo
Game 3prediction missed33:32
PSG Quest 52%Team Bald Reborn 48%
The model gave 52% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 44:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNo!ob
TinyGorgc
HoodwinkOmaR
Storm SpiritExcalibur
SnapfireEixn
PangolierZipZaper
50% · 142 games
PhoenixPablo
44% · 188 games
Grimstrokebengan
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 50%
Series resultTeam Bald Reborn 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3