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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 24 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 21 game
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 19 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%

Team Bald Reborn

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 682 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
406 picks · 187 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 422 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 534 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
345 picks · 556 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
343 picks · 171 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 635 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 818 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:23
PSG Quest 67%Team Bald Reborn 33%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 53:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
53% · 77 games38% · 14 games
NecrophosGorgc
Necrophos
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMalik
54% · 56 games46% · 153 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTA2000
50% · 79 games51% · 59 games
MarciSaksa
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
55% · 55 games43% · 69 games
Winter WyvernNagato
Winter Wyvern
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDukalis
63% · 28 games
Game 2prediction correct35:15
PSG Quest 66%Team Bald Reborn 34%
The model gave 66% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
46% · 72 games57% · 40 games
BristlebackGorgc
Bristleback
Windranger
WindrangerNo!ob
40% · 47 games49% · 110 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarMalik
51% · 33 games50% · 83 games
Monkey KingSaksa
Monkey King
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOmaR
48% · 81 game53% · 56 games
VenomancerNagato
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
56% · 56 games
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 78%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2