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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 37 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 26 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 21 game
57%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 20 games
60%

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 15 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 13 games
31%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 12 games
42%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 10 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Armel · 10 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Crystallis · 10 games
40%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
486 picks · 322 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
455 picks · 991 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 854 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 937 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1006 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
379 picks · 449 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 29%
Hero pool strength60% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:16
PSG Quest 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
57% · 157 games44% · 342 games
SnapfireArmel
Snapfire
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
52% · 315 games45% · 197 games
SlarkCrystallis
Slark
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
51% · 392 games44% · 128 games
TidehunterFbz
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
56% · 419 games46% · 332 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
50% · 103 games55% · 387 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct26:11
PSG Quest 55%Team Secret 45%
The model gave 55% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
47% · 86 games60% · 6 games
MeepoArmel
Meepo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalik
46% · 120 games45% · 83 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Tusk
TuskNo!ob
43% · 211 games53% · 358 games
Primal BeastFbz
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
46% · 96 games61% · 113 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Rubick
RubickOmaR
51% · 311 games54% · 264 games
Crystal Maidenyamich
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 62%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2