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European Pro League Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Sexyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OmaR · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 4 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Eixn · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%

Team Sexy

Riki
Rikioften banned
9Class · 2 games
100%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moonlight · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
100%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
9Class · 1 game
100%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Nefrit · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 392 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
360 picks · 361 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
346 picks · 238 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
285 picks · 292 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
224 picks · 271 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
218 picks · 115 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 147 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
193 picks · 531 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Team Sexy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
PSG Quest 54%Team Sexy 46%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 30:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
63% · 25 games42% · 61 game
Drow Ranger7jesu
Drow Ranger
Leshrac
LeshracNo!ob
55% · 112 games47% · 192 games
Death ProphetNefrit
Death Prophet
Broodmother
BroodmotherWuiter
54% · 39 games42% · 117 games
BatriderMoonlight
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
51% · 149 games49% · 49 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
56% · 94 games
Game 2prediction correct29:12
PSG Quest 51%Team Sexy 49%
The model gave 51% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTA2000
39% · 49 games60% · 118 games
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
53% · 185 games48% · 239 games
Death ProphetMoonlight
Death Prophet
Venomancer
VenomancerWuiter
52% · 48 games47% · 53 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
50% · 114 games49% · 166 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Rubick
RubickOmaR
49% · 180 games
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 55%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2