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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 38 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 27 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 22 games
59%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 20 games
60%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 18 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 14 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
488 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
454 picks · 991 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 859 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 938 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1009 bans
57%
Pugna
Pugna
378 picks · 450 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength56% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:41
PSG Quest 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
49% · 144 games48% · 228 games
BloodseekerGhost
Bloodseeker
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
56% · 378 games48% · 169 games
PudgeJT-
Pudge
Broodmother
BroodmotherMalik
64% · 208 games47% · 588 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickOmaR
46% · 583 games43% · 521 game
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerKaori
49% · 259 games51% · 66 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed20:38
PSG Quest 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalik
47% · 175 games55% · 7 games
MeepoJT-
Meepo
Ursa
UrsaTA2000
48% · 109 games61% · 141 game
MedusaGhost
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
47% · 298 games56% · 141 game
Queen of PainPaparazi
Queen of Pain
Bane
BaneKaori
56% · 24 games42% · 430 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickOmaR
45% · 501 game52% · 388 games
ClockwerkDy
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 68%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2