DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
1T1nter t1deloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 18 games
Techies
Gothic- · 15 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
Linaoften banned
спортик · 11 games
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 11 games
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
Slardar
krol9ash · 10 games
Centaur Warrunner
krol9ash · 9 games
1nter t1de
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
524 picks · 315 bans
Dark Willow
438 picks · 212 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 307 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 503 bans
Centaur Warrunner
308 picks · 294 bans
Earth Spirit
284 picks · 515 bans
Windranger
276 picks · 136 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% 1nter t1de
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% 1nter t1de
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
PuckChamp 45%1nter t1de 55%
The model gave 55% on 1nter t1de — the game was taken by PuckChamp.
Model check result
Model favorite1nter t1de · 55%
Series resultPuckChamp 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1