Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
AS Monaco Gambit
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
xannii · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Brewmaster
Aoharide · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
xannii · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
xsvampire · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 143 bans
Puck
55 picks · 151 bans
Earth Spirit
53 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 89 bans
Undying
43 picks · 64 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 53 bans
Rubick
41 picks · 21 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 87 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:25
PuckChamp 79%AS Monaco Gambit 21%
The model gave 79% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 46:07.
Game 2prediction missed8:21
PuckChamp 79%AS Monaco Gambit 21%
The model gave 79% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by AS Monaco Gambit in 32:18.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 79%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2