ESL One Summer 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Cascade Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Cascade Esports
Rubick
jAMES · 11 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
MieRo · 7 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Shisui · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 5 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Zitraks · 4 games
Iooften banned
Zitraks · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Kidaro · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
380 picks · 973 bans
Lion
370 picks · 198 bans
Mars
362 picks · 585 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 362 bans
Snapfire
293 picks · 171 bans
Tusk
289 picks · 222 bans
Death Prophet
285 picks · 634 bans
Void Spirit
276 picks · 468 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:7
PuckChamp 78%Cascade Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 26:53.
Game 2prediction missed24:53
PuckChamp 78%Cascade Esports 22%
The model gave 78% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Cascade Esports in 36:37.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 78%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2